Minimum Wage Commission

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Completed projects in 2020


Effects of the statutory minimum wage on the wage structure and hours worked

The research project aims at identifying the causal effects on wages and hours worked that have resulted from 1) the introduction of a minimum wage, and 2) its first uprating. The analysis is based on data from the Structure of Earnings Survey (SES), the Earnings Surveys of the German Federal Statistical Office, and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP).

Contractors: RWI Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI) in cooperation with Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA) and Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Löhne und Arbeitszeiten"

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on employment and unemployment

The objective of the research project is to identify the effects on both employment and unemployment resulting from the introduction of a minimum wage in 2015 and its first uprating in 2017. In addition, the research project will focus on movements in and out of employment within and between firms, on the hiring and firing behaviour of firms and on the employment structure and employment stability within firms.

Contractor: Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit"

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on firms

The research project aims at identifying 1) the causal effects of the minimum wage on firms, and 2) the adjustments these businesses have made as a result. Based on existing research findings, the study will evaluate the long-term effects on businesses of the introduction of a minimum wage and also consider the short-term effects of the first and the second uprating. The analysis will consider impacts on productivity, profits, the closure and formation of firms, investments and outsourcing.

Contractor: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB)

Final report (in German):
1. Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des Mindestlohns auf ­Betriebe und Unternehmen"

Behaviour of firms and employees in the context of the minimum wage

The objective of the research project is to identify and describe the qualitative effects of the minimum wage on impacted firms and employees and to evaluate their reactions to the introduction of a minimum wage. The focal points of the research are the actions and responses of firms and employees, along with their motives and relevant contextual factors. The research project will look specifically at the effects of the minimum wage introduction in 2015 and its uprating in 2017 in the areas of compliance, implementation costs and adjustment channels. The project is based on a qualitative research design.

Contractor: Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Verhaltensmuster von Betrieben und Beschäftigten im Kontext des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns"

Awareness of the statutory minimum wage among employees

Based on a representative survey, the project will analyse employees’ awareness of the existence of a statutory minimum wage in Germany and their knowledge of the actual wage level stipulated in the statute.

Contractor: Ipsos

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Umfrage zur Bekanntheit des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns"

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on self-employment

The research project’s goal is to identify causal effects of the statutory minimum wage on freelance work and self-employment (without employees). The question posed is: What impact did the introduction and subsequent increase of the minimum wage have on the extent of freelance work and self-employment?

Contractor: Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf die Solo-Selbständigkeit"

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on household income, consumption and savings

The project will attempt to provide an answer through analysis of the 2015 minimum wage’s impact on income, consumption and savings behaviour of private households. The analyses is based on the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and the German Einkommens- und Verbraucherstichprobe (sample survey of income and expenditure).

Contractor: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) in cooperation with Evaluation Office Caliendo

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Haushaltseinkommen sowie das Konsum- und Sparverhalten"

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on the pensions provided by statutory pension insurance

The goal of the research project is to clarify the impact of the statutory minimum wage on pensions. A simulation model will be used to calculate the effect of the introduction of the minimum wage on central pension values. The two main questions the research program addresses are the following: 1) How has the statutory minimum wage affected the adjustment of the current pension value and the different factors in the pension adjustment formula? 2) Do the effects differ across socio-demographic groups, forms of employment or geographic regions?

Contractor: Prognos

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf die Rentenentwicklung"

The potential usefulness of administrative statistics for evaluating the statutory minimum wage

The aim of the research project is to assess the potential value of German administrative data at the firm level as a tool for evaluating the statutory minimum wage. The relevant data are the German Administrative Data-Firm Level (AFiD) and the Combined Firm-Level Data for Germany (KombiFiD). The research project will clarify the accessibility of the data for periods before and after the introduction of the minimum wage and assess whether panel data or cross-sectional data are available.

Contractor: Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik (ISG)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Analysepotenzial von Daten der amtlichen Wirtschaftsstatistik für die Mindestlohnforschung"

Methods of evaluating the effects of the statutory minimum wage on undeclared work

The research project compares different approaches to the evaluation of minimum wage effects on undeclared work. The evaluation looks in particular at the suitability of conducting ex post analysis of the introduction and first uprating of the minimum wage or of future upratings.

Contractor: Institut für Sozialforschung und Gesellschaftspolitik (ISG)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Ansätze zur Evaluation der Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf die Schwarzarbeit"

Methodical comparison of the calculation or query of hourly wages in the Socio-Economic Panel

The goal of the expertise is a systematic study based on the SOEP database on the resilience of the various methods of calculating and querying hourly wages in the SOEP with a focus on the surveys of 2017 and 2018.

Contractor: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Methodischer Vergleich der Berechnung bzw. Abfrage von Stundenlöhnen im Sozio-oekonomischen Panel (SOEP)"