Minimum Wage Commission

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Completed projects in 2022

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on wages and working hours

The project examined the effects of the introduction and increases of the statutory minimum wage on hourly and monthly wages, working hours and the volume of work as well as on wage mobility for the period up to 2019. To this end, descriptive evaluations of wages and working hours were carried out on the basis of the Structure of Earnings Survey (VSE) and the Earnings Surveys (VE) and on the basis of the Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Causal analyses of the effects of the statutory minimum wage on earnings and working hours were conducted using the GSOEP. In addition, the GSOEP was used for identifying the scope and structure of secondary employment as well as for investigating working time patterns and the extent and types of working time records.

Project conducted by: RWI – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung in cooperation with Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Löhne und Arbeitszeiten"

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on employment and unemployment

The project identified the causal effects of the introduction of the minimum wage and the increases in the statutory minimum wage on January 1, 2017, and January 1, 2019, on employment and unemployment through mid-2021. The analyses differentiate by employment type, socio-demographic characteristics, job characteristics, economic sectors, and regions. In addition, the effects of minimum wage implementation in regions with different growth dynamics and the interaction of the minimum wage and the Corona pandemic were examined.

Project conducted by: Evaluation Office Caliendo

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit"

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on individual employment movements and company wage structures in the years 2015 to 2020

The project examined the causal effects of the introduction of the minimum wage and the first and second increases in the statutory minimum wage on individual employment movements and intra- and inter-firm wage structures. The possible cyclical effects of the Corona pandemic on employment patterns and layoffs of minimum wage employees were also investigated. A project-specific employer-employee dataset (PAAD) served as the data basis, which was based on a sample of the Integrated Employment Biographies (IEB) of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) of the German Federal Employment Agency (BA) drawn specifically for this purpose and linked to indicators of the minimum-wage bite. All analyses were differentiated according to forms of dependent employment, socio-demographic characteristics, company characteristics and regions.

Project conducted by: Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA) in cooperation with Evaluation Office Caliendo

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf individuelle Beschäftigungsbewegungen und betriebliche Lohnstrukturen in den Jahren 2015 bis 2020"

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on competition indicators

The project evaluated the effects of the introduction of the statutory minimum wage and its first increase on the competitive conditions of firms in Germany. The developments in the number of companies, company density, market entries and market exits of companies, the development of labour productivity, as well as the development of market concentration in the years 2010 to 2018 were analysed. The analyses are based on the data of the Mannheim Enterprise Panel (MUP) and cover the period from 2010 to 2018. 

Project conducted by: Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf die Wettbewerbsbedingungen"

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on businesses and companies

The project investigated the effects of the introduction and the first three increases of the statutory minimum wage on different outcome variables using firm level data, including wages, employment, turnover, profits, investment, hiring, training and outsourcing. The study period extended to 2020, and panel data from the IAB Establishment Panel were the main data source. Causal analyses based on the IAB Job Survey, the Linked Personnel Panel and the Establishment History Panel were also conducted.

Project conducted by: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Betriebe und Unternehmen"

Consequences of the Corona pandemic for minimum wage employees and businesses affected by the minimum wage

The project examined the challenges, consequences, and reactions of minimum wage workers and of businesses with minimum wage workers in dealing with the Corona pandemic. More than 110 semi-standardized qualitative interviews were conducted in 2021 with owners or HR managers from businesses with minimum wage workers and with employees affected by the minimum wage. The interviews took place in six economic sectors (bakery and pasta production, retail trade, postal, courier and express services, catering and accommodation, provision of sports services, hairdressing and beauty salons) and in four regions (Rostock, Bautzen, Bochum, Kaiserslautern/Pirmasens).

Project conducted by: Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW) in cooperation with Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit (IZA) and SOKO Institut für Sozialforschung & Kommunikation

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Folgen der Corona-Pandemie für Mindestlohnbeschäftigte und vom Mindestlohn betroffene Betriebe"

Statutory minimum wage and seasonal employment

The project identified the effects of the statutory minimum wage on seasonal workers and their employers in agriculture and the hospitality industry using a qualitative research design. Between June and October 2021, case studies were conducted in a total of 20 companies from five different regions in Germany. Within this framework, interviews were conducted with 27 people from the management level and with 39 seasonal employees from farms and restaurants. Twelve industry representatives were also interviewed. The questions addressed include the working conditions of seasonal employees, the implementation of the minimum wage in companies and changes in the demand for and supply of seasonal employees due to the minimum wage. The final report also contains a literature review and brief portraits of the industries with their specific economic conditions.

Project conducted by: Prognos AG in cooperation with Qualitative Mind Research (QMR)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Gesetzlicher Mindestlohn und Saisonbeschäftigungn"

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on the receipt of social benefits

This project examined the effects of the statutory minimum wage on the receipt of social benefits. This included the scope of individual transfer payments as well as the actual and recognised costs of accommodation for employed SGB II recipients. Key factors such as the size and composition of the household and the extent of employment were taken into account. The analyses are based on the sample of Integrated Basic Income Biographies (SIG) of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB).

Project conducted by: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf den Bezug von Sozialleistungen"

Impact of the statutory minimum wage on poverty

The study focused on the analysis of the impact of the statutory minimum wage on poverty in the period up to 2019 by examining the development of income poverty and poverty risk on the basis of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). The analysis also used a microsimulation model to examine the effects of different levels of the statutory minimum wage on poverty and the risk of poverty, as well as on the receipt of social benefits.

Project conducted by: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Armut"

Effects of the statutory minimum wage on consumption behaviour based on the Survey of Income and Consumption (EVS)

The project conducted an analysis of the effects of the statutory minimum wage on consumption based on the German Survey of Income and Consumption (EVS). Consumption patterns in the EVS for 2018 were compared to those in the previous EVS survey in 2013. The study thus identified effects of the introduction and the first increase of the minimum wage in 2017. The project includes differentiated observations by household type as well as causal analyses of the effects of the minimum wage on household income and income use.

Project conducted by: Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI) der Hans-Böckler-Stiftung

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf das Konsumverhalten auf Basis der Einkommens- und Verbrauchsstichprobe (EVS)"

Evaluation on the consequences of the Corona pandemic for employees in the minimum wage sector based on the IAB HOPP survey

The project examined the effects of the Corona pandemic on minimum wage employees using data from the survey "Living and Working in Times of Corona" (HOPP) conducted by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). The analyses are differentiated by wage groups and compare employees in the minimum-wage sector with higher-wage employees. Observed outcome variables include "short-time work", home office, household income and employment status.

Project conducted by: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Sonderauswertung zu den Folgen der Corona-Pandemie für Beschäftigte im Mindestlohnbereich auf Basis der IAB-HOPP-Befragung"

Special evaluation on the consequences of the Covid 19 pandemic for establishments affected by the minimum wage on the basis of the IAB Establishment Panel

The study examined the consequences of the Corona pandemic and the reactions to it in establishments affected by the minimum wage. The IAB Establishment Panel for the years 2019 to 2021 served as the data basis. It was shown how establishments were affected by the statutory minimum wage before and during the pandemic. The pandemic-related consequences (e.g., employment expectations) and reactions (e.g., short-time work) were examined multivariate. The economic development of estab-lishments (e.g. employment, business situation) was compared between establishments affected by the minimum wage and those not affected using difference-in-differences estimates."

Project conducted by: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB)

Final report (in German):
Abschlussbericht "Sonderauswertung zu den Folgen der Covid-19-Pandemie für vom Mindestlohn betroffene Betriebe auf Basis des IAB-Betriebspanels"